Ark Invest predicts Bitcoin could hit $300K–$1.5M by 2030

The market is moving into a more institutional, lower-volatility age as a result of ETFs and corporate treasuries absorbing more bitcoin than anticipated.

According to David Puell of Ark Invest, investors' level of exposure and the vehicles they use will determine the next stage of the Bitcoin market more so than whether they believe in the commodity.

With the introduction of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in 2024 and the explosive expansion of digital asset treasury (DAT) strategies, Puell, a research trading analyst and associate portfolio manager for digital assets at the asset management company headed by investor Cathie Wood, stated that bitcoin has crossed a significant threshold into institutional maturity.

“In previous cycles, we were still building a lot of the infrastructure,” Puell said. In an interview with CoinDesk, he stated, “Now the question is not if you invest in bitcoin, but how much bitcoin you want and through what vehicle.”

Since its regulatory approval in early 2024, U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have rapidly emerged as one of the most significant generators of capital flows into the cryptocurrency. Over the course of about 18 months, these products have brought in over $50 billion in net inflows, highlighting a general trend toward institutional and regulated access to bitcoin without direct self-custody.

That flow has been dominated by Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) and BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which have contributed to tighter supply and deeper liquidity. Some estimates suggest that these ETFs collectively possess hundreds of thousands of bitcoins.

Bitcoin could hit $300K–$1.5M by 2030

This change has directly impacted both demand and supply. According to Puell, ETFs and digital asset treasury structures have combined to absorb almost 12% of the total supply of bitcoin, considerably exceeding forecasts and emerging as one of the main forces behind price movement through 2025, a trend that might continue in 2026.

Publicly traded corporations that retain bitcoin or other digital assets as a primary balance-sheet reserve to increase shareholder value are known as digital asset treasury companies.

Puell observed a countering force at the same moment. When prices hit new highs, long-term holders who bought bitcoin more than ten years ago are more inclined to take profits.

According to Puell, “Early adopters will profit-take more aggressively toward the top in bull markets.” They usually hang on during bear markets. In 2025, these were the two main competing forces: institutions purchasing (via ETFs and DATs) and early adopters collecting profits.

Ark maintains confidence in its long-term valuation framework in spite of those dynamics. According to its published valuation model, the firm's 2030 bitcoin price projections include a base case of around $710,000, a bull case of about $1.5 million, and a bear case of about $300,000.

According to Puell, institutional investment makes up the majority of the upside in the bull scenario, while digital gold, or bitcoin's function as a store of wealth, is mostly responsible for Ark's bear and base scenarios.

The increasingly “vaulted” supply of bitcoin is one contributing aspect. Puell cited on-chain statistics that indicate network liveliness has been close to 60% since early 2018. According to Ark, this means that long-term holders have effectively locked away about 36% of bitcoin's supply.

In the upcoming years, macroeconomic variables may help Bitcoin even more. The end of U.S. monetary tightening, according to Puell, may bring back liquidity, which has historically supported riskier assets like bitcoin.

“For bitcoin, U.S. liquidity is more important than global M2,” Puell stated, adding that other countries frequently follow the U.S. because it has the largest capital base in the world.

The shifting volatility profile of bitcoin is another structural change. According to Puell, volatility has reached all-time lows, supporting Ark's belief that bitcoin's risk-adjusted returns are getting better.

According to Puell, “30% to 50% drawdowns during bull markets were normal in previous cycles.” Bitcoin's decline has not exceeded roughly 36% since the 2022 bottom, which is unusual.

More cautious investors who were previously put off by catastrophic risk may find bitcoin more appealing as a result of this decrease in volatility and less severe drawdowns.

According to Puell, “You now have more sophisticated investors who save money to deploy during drawdowns and don't compound aggressively into parabolic moves.” “It shortens recovery periods and flattens volatility.”

Puell also pointed to regulatory clarity under the Trump administration, the emergence of staking-related ETFs, and growing state-level interest, with Texas as a prominent example, as longer-term structural tailwinds. While a U.S. strategic bitcoin reserve would not create new demand, Puell said it would reinforce a strong holder base unlikely to sell.

Ark has made one notable adjustment to its outlook. Some of the emerging market's safe-haven demand has instead shifted toward stablecoins, which was once expected to flow into bitcoin. Stronger-than-expected interest from gold-related use cases within Ark's model largely offsets the dilution, according to Puell.

“We are steadfastly adhering to our established targets,” stated Puell. “The composition of demand has evolved, but the long-term thesis remains intact.”

Looking beyond 2026, Puell said Ark remains focused on a five-year horizon rather than short-term price calls, arguing that bitcoin’s maturation into a lower-volatility, institutionally held asset could ultimately prove as important as any single price level.