Low 32% Odds for Clarity Act Passage Polymarket Reveals Record

Senate Ethics Deadlock Drives Clarity Act Odds Lower

Polymarket traders cut the odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to a record-low 32% on Friday, July 17, as Senate negotiations over ethics provisions remained unresolved. The prediction market figure, down roughly 30 percentage points from when trading launched in January, briefly touched 31% before recovering slightly. The decline follows a White House meeting between President Trump and Senate Republicans that failed to produce revised bill text, leaving one of Washington's most closely watched crypto policy fights stalled just weeks before Congress breaks for summer recess.

Crypto Market Structure Bill Faces Uncertain Path Forward

The legislation, formally known as the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, would establish clearer jurisdictional lines between the SEC and CFTC over digital assets. Senator Ruben Gallego, one of two Democrats who backed the bill in committee, has said he will not support it on the floor without a bipartisan ethics provision addressing conflicts of interest involving public officials and digital assets. With no bipartisan language yet released and the Senate's August 7 recess deadline approaching, industry groups continue pressing lawmakers to act, arguing regulatory clarity would bring more crypto activity onshore.

Continued uncertainty around the bill's fate may keep U.S. crypto firms operating under ambiguous regulatory conditions, potentially slowing institutional participation in domestic digital asset markets.

With midterm elections looming in November, the bill's window for passage this year is narrowing, and further delay could push comprehensive market structure legislation into 2027.

Galaxy Research head Alex Thorn has lowered his own 2026 passage estimate, citing a tightening legislative calendar as the primary obstacle to the bill clearing the Senate.