As the 2024 U.S. election nears, Polymarket odds show Donald Trump widening his lead over Kamala Harris with a 15-point advantage. Trump holds a 58% chance of winning, compared to Harris’s 43.1%, drawing attention from political analysts.
As the 2024 U.S. presidential election draws near, betting odds on Polymarket, a decentralized forecast market, show that former President Donald Trump is pulling ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris.
The most recent numbers show that Trump has a 15-point lead over Clinton. This is the biggest difference between the two candidates that has been recorded on the platform so far.
At this point, Polymarket users are betting that Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, will win the election. Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, has a 43.1% chance of winning. Market experts and people who study politics are both interested in this big difference in the odds.
The “Presidential Election Winner 2024” market on Polymarket has become one of the busiest places to bet on elections this year.
With less than three weeks to go, on November 4, election day, close to $2 billion has been bet on this result. Trump has most of this amount, worth more than $561 million. Harris is far behind, with only $381 million.
Polymarket statistics show that Trump’s chances have gotten better in almost every swing state. In six states that are expected to decide the election, the former president is now the favorite to win.
Arizona (68% chance), Georgia (64% chance), Pennsylvania (54% chance), Michigan (52% chance), North Carolina (63% chance), and Wisconsin (15%) are some of these.
Nevada is the only split state where Harris still has a small lead. There, she has a 51% chance of winning compared to $49% for Trump. The results for each state show that the race has changed in favor of Trump in the Electoral College, even though Harris is still ahead in the general vote prediction.
In the last few decades, betting chances have done very well. Bookmakers Review says that over the last 35 years, betting odds have been right about 77% of the time when predicting who will win the presidential race.
Both candidates have tried to reach out to crypto supporters during their campaigns. During a gala in May, Trump called himself the “crypto president,” and he has since used pro-Bitcoin language. On the other hand, Harris has been more cautious.
He has promised to support “new innovative technologies” and “crypto-friendly regulatory frameworks” to protect investors and make it easier for people to use capital formation services.
Adding Polymarket to Bloomberg’s screen, a first for a crypto-native protocol has made the platform’s role in predicting the election even more credible. Polymarket has also become more well known in the public eye since famous people like Elon Musk have discussed it.
As the election date gets closer, more people are using other forecast markets. Kalshi was recently permitted by a court to list Congressional contracts for U.S. customers.
This could enable him to offer services related to presidential results. Reports say that projects like Wintermute are also thinking about getting into the on-chain prediction game.
