Coinbase Institutional has published an investor primer ahead of the fourth Bitcoin halving, slated to take place in the middle of April.
Miner payouts will be half from 6.25 to 3.125 bitcoin per block upon reaching the 840,000 block as part of the Bitcoin halving, which happens every four years or when mining every 210,000 blocks.
By analyzing the effects of prior halvings and taking into account more recent changes in the cryptocurrency space, like the launch of Bitcoin ETFs and the cryptocurrency’s rise to previously unheard-of heights before the halving, the document seeks to guide institutional investors.
In the past months that followed previous halvings, notable gains in the value of Bitcoin have been seen. The value of Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a sharp increase due to the first halving, rising 139% in the six months before the event and 923% in the six months that followed.
The pattern of post-halving appreciation has been noted, even though the growth in previous halvings has not reached the same magnitude as this initial spike.
Analysts at Coinbase draw attention to the particular circumstances surrounding the impending halving, pointing out that Bitcoin has increased by 157% since October and indicating that growth may still occur. The company’s analysts stated:
“While it’s possible that the halving could positively impact Bitcoin’s performance, there’s still only limited historical evidence about this relationship, making it somewhat speculative.”
The research also identifies macroeconomic variables that may affect the course of Bitcoin, such as prospective rate reduction by the Federal Reserve. It also considers long-term holders’ actions, which Glassnode defines as investors who have held for 155 days or more and who have a history of being less inclined to sell in reaction to halvings.
Potential difficulties are mentioned in the primer, such as the possibility of increasing pressure on sales from miners adjusting to lesser incentives and businesses going through bankruptcy procedures.