The Polymarket platform is verifying that whales who are placing bets on the US presidential election are located overseas, as US users are prohibited from using the platform.
A person familiar with the matter stated in a report from Bloomberg on Oct. 22 that Polymarket is currently re-checking the details of users of its platform, particularly those who make large wagers, to ensure compliance with its rules.
Polymarket Verifys US Users on the Platform
The platform has implemented measures to prevent US users from accessing its website; however, there are concerns that US residents may circumvent the blockage by utilizing virtual private networks. Consequently, the platform has undertaken additional investigations.
It results from rumors that a few large whales are tipping the balance in favor of Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump in the upcoming November US presidential election.
In the “Presidential Election Winner 2024” market on Polymarket, nearly $2.3 billion in wagers have been placed. Currently, Trump (63.7%) is the favorite over Vice President Kamala Harris (36.2%).
There has been significant interest in the whereabouts of Polymarket whale “Fredi9999,” as over $20 million has been wagered on Republican outcomes thus far.
Additionally, Donald Trump maintains a 60% advantage over Harris on the competitor prediction platform Kalshi.
However, most voter polls, such as a Reuters poll, do not presently reflect Trump’s lead in the crypto prediction markets. Harris currently leads at 46% to 43%.
Tarek Mansour, the founder of Kalshi, stated that the platform’s results are precise and not the result of inorganic manipulation in response to media scrutiny.
“The median bet size on Harris is $85 compared to $58 on Donald Trump, which is an increase.”
Mark Cuban, a billionaire and investor stated that most of the wagers placed on Polymarket’s US election market are from overseas, which means they do not accurately reflect the sentiment of eligible voters.
In an interview with CNBC Squawk Box on Oct. 21, Cuban stated, “From all indications, most of the money flowing into Polymarket is foreign money. Therefore, I do not believe it is indicative of anything.”
In January 2022, the prediction market settled with the United States commodities regulator for $1.4 million for providing over 900 event-based binary options event markets without obtaining registration.
In a separate instance, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission suffered a partial loss in a lawsuit it initiated against Kalshi in September. The court determined that the commodities regulator had “exceeded its statutory authority” by mandating that the US-based entity suspend its election markets.
