Polymarket users now bet a 55% chance of President Biden dropping out of the race, up from 19% pre-debate and peaking at 63% post-debate.
Users are placing bets on a 55% likelihood that President Biden will withdraw from the presidential campaign, as per the crypto prediction platform Polymarket.
This substantial increase in odds is particularly noteworthy because the market had only anticipated a 19% likelihood of Biden withdrawing before the first presidential debate on June 27.
This probability increased to 42% the day following the debate and reached its highest point of 63% on July 3, before gradually declining to 55%.
Polymarket’s odds suggest that the election between President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris is becoming increasingly competitive.
Harris’s odds of winning the election have increased to 14%, while Biden’s are currently at 15%. This shift in odds is indicative of the increasing uncertainty and conjecture surrounding the potential changes in the Democratic candidacy.
