Bitcoin (BTC) is back at $57,000 as a new week begins after a much stronger weekly close than many predicted. Coronavirus uncertainty continues and data reveals key insights into Bitcoin support and resistance levels
Bitcoin surpassed $58k overnight
After a late spike, Bitcoin (BTC) is back at $57,000 as a new week begins after a much stronger weekly close than many predicted.
The price of Bitcoin surpassed $58,000 overnight, making up for last week’s Coronavirus-caused sell-off and accompanying price fall.
Even before the open, macro markets are indicating that there may be some Coronavirus nervousness left, and sellers can take advantage of leveraged optimists on the basis of recent gains.
To get a sense of what could happen this week, Cointelegraph crunches the figures to discover what might be driving Bitcoin’s price.
Record-breaking time for Bitcoin’s recovery
Three days after losing $6,000 in a single daily candle, Bitcoin price action has already returned to its pre-disaster levels.
As expected, BTC/USD ended the weekend at $57,300 on Bitstamp, the highest weekly closing price in two months.
Gains of $57,000 are still on target as of this writing on Monday.
“Time-tested bull market indicator”: Rekt Capital’s analysis found that the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $52,500 provided support.
As he put it, “Strong BTC reaction from the 21-week EMA.”
As of this writing, Bitcoin has yet to break beyond the $60,000 barrier, despite recent highs of $58,300.
Prior attempts to break out of that selling zone since losing it as support have been met with solid resistance.
But data suggests that an increase in liquidations of more than $300 million in the last 24 hours surprised some.
The rise in funding rates, which were neutral on Sunday, is also an indication of renewed optimism about a sustained BTC price rebound—and the associated risk.
According to Rekt Capital’s analysis, “All it took was a +7 percent Daily candle to melt all fears and anxiety of a fresh BTC Bear Market.”
He claimed that BTC/USD is “progressing nicely” towards the end of Tuesday’s monthly close.
Coronavirus and a rerun in March of 2020
This week’s macro markets are expected to begin with a bumpy ride as the omicron version of the Coronavirus continues to dig into the public’s confidence.
Priya Misra, global head of rates strategy at TD Securities, told Bloomberg Monday that “we really need some more answers to figure out the impact on GDP.”
“Risk assets are pricing in uncertainty.”
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies joined equities, oil, and other commodities in a massive sell-off last week.
On Monday, Asian markets are expected to open lower, with a 1-2 percent dip expected at the time of this writing.
The newfound optimism may be scuppered by any fresh jolts to macroeconomic systems as Bitcoin rises.
For the bulls, a repeat of March 2020, when a cross-crypto rout as Coronavirus entered the global scene, sparking a spike that exceeded prior price highs, is a realistic expectation.
many seem scared of another march 2020 style bitcoin liquidation event, if you hold your own keys and don’t use leverage this is a negligible concern, if it does happen I expect it to be quick and brutal then correct, most trying to trade this will get rekt, stay humble and stack— ODELL (@ODELL) November 28, 2021
Even so, Bitcoin was not immune to last week’s criticism, which came from a number of well-known figures who argued that it was not a risk-free investment.
According to gold bug Peter Schiff, “Being a little less risky doesn’t make Bitcoin secure,” and he predicted that Bitcoin will eventually become “as risky as any altcoin.”
The $50,000 echoes $30,000 as a starting point
It is not necessary to scroll too far down the BTC price chart to see if there has been a retracement from the current levels.
There is a massive purchase wall in place, according to the latest order book data from analytics provider Material Scientist. This should hold the market above $50,000.
However, despite the fact that the stakes may be high, some have stated that a failure to maintain that level of support would lead them to reassess their approach to Bitcoin, which now appears less likely.
The Material Scientist tweeted Sunday, “Not sure why you’re all so afraid.”
If $50,000 is thus the new $30,000, the current retracement from all-time highs would be considered modest in comparison to the May dip of nearly 50 percent.
“This is largest bid since the 30k bottom.”
While this was going on, Material Scientist noticed something strange — the same entity responsible for support also placed resistance at $70,000.
“In essence, one actor has the entire market in their hands,” it stated.
For bulls hoping to see a continuation of the bull run before the end of Q4 2021, $70,000 serves as the primary point of focus.
For three Bitcoin price correlations, D-Day is near
For Bitcoin, the coming days and weeks will be “very telling,” as it has the potential to make or break some important correlations.
TechDev, a popular Twitter analyst, came to this conclusion over the weekend as Bitcoin continued to follow gold’s path from the 1970s.
Contrary to popular belief, there are startling resemblances between BTC/USD prices in 2020-21 and XAU/USD prices fifty years ago.
If the current trend continues, Bitcoin could reach a price of up to $280,000 if it continues to rise. Mid-February 2022 is the deadline.
An update on events stated that “the 1970’s gold fractal now precisely aligned and anchored to both local high and low.”
“Only Dec/Jan affected with model extending to 1st half Feb.”
If you look at a breakdown of the forecasted Bitcoin metamorphosis since September, you can see that this month has deviated from the forecast. The BTC/USD rate is expected to rise from $70,000 to $110,000 in December.
Beyond gold and its Fibonacci sequences, there are two other correlations that will have their moment of truth in the next few weeks, as well.
In terms of Bitcoin’s 2017 performance, both of these are still valid. The price rises will be affected by the outcome of the competition.
As early as mid-December, a peak of around $150,000 is possible, or as late as mid-February, $225,000 is possible.
For now, “Mid-December to the end of January with a 230K top remains my base case,” TechDev wrote.
“Obviously the earlier side of that window looks less likely. I couldn’t care less if it’s right. I’ve seen compelling work suggesting a top from mid-Dec to mid-March, with targets from 120K-260K.”
According to Raoul Pal, co-founder of Global Macro Investor, “the coming weeks will be very telling” for all three correlations.
Where will Bitcoin end “Moonvember”?
This was once a multi-billion dollar question, but now, people are starting to accept that this bull market may not mature as quickly as they had hoped.
The short-term outlook remains positive, despite this.
The majority of nearly 50,000 people who participated in a Twitter poll conducted by the @Bitcoin account predicted that BTC/USD would end November above $60,000.
35 percent chose the highest possible price, while another 25.7 percent predicted a November closing price between $55,000 and $6,0000.
It’s easy to forget how far Bitcoin has come in the last year if you don’t zoom out. As noted by Cointelegraph, Bitcoin/USD traded at just under $16,500 last Thanksgiving, which coincidentally also saw a brief sell-off.
“Don’t mistake the forest for the trees,” said quant analyst Benjamin Cowen over the weekend.