France’s ANJ may ban Polymarket after a $450M bet on the 2024 US election amid concerns about unlawful gambling and market manipulation.
Polymarket, a crypto-powered prediction market, may soon face a ban from France’s gambling authority, ANJ, following a surge in bets on the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
As prediction platforms gained global traction, Polymarket saw record engagement, with an anticipated payout of $450 million if Donald Trump wins.
$450 Million Expected for Election Bets
Prediction markets, anticipating around $450 million in payouts to election bettors should Trump prevail, have garnered significant attention.
Although traditional polls indicated a tight race, platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have shown a marked increase in Trump’s chances, diverging from poll predictions.
A prominent example is a French trader known as “Theo,” who placed a $26 million wager on Trump’s victory and won $49 million, drawing regulatory attention to Polymarket’s compliance with French gambling laws.
ANJ Mulls Blocking Polymarket
The ANJ argues that Polymarket provides unlicensed gambling services, a domain reserved for licensed operators in France.
According to local media, ANJ has authority to restrict access to unlicensed gambling sites, with plans to block Polymarket’s reach in France.
An ANJ source remarked, “Polymarket is just betting on something that is completely uncertain, which is exactly what gambling is.”
If implemented, the ban could prevent French users from accessing Polymarket, although some may circumvent it with a VPN.
The ANJ may also pressure media channels and directories to halt advertisements or links to Polymarket, reducing its visibility.
Concerns Over Market Manipulation
Polymarket’s heightened activity has sparked concerns about potential market manipulation.
Blockchain analysis firms Chaos Labs and Inca Digital reported potential wash trading within Polymarket’s U.S. presidential market, where assets are repeatedly bought and sold to inflate activity.
This manipulation could distort market signals and mislead participants.
In May, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission also proposed new rules to increase regulation of prediction markets, citing potential manipulation risks.
While no final decision has been made, regulatory moves may impact Polymarket’s operations in additional markets, including the United States.
