Spot Bitcoin ETFs will need to generate an average of $301 million in net inflows per day to cross 1M BTC.
As traders prepare for potential crypto-positive trends in November, the United States spot Bitcoin ETFs may accumulate 1 million Bitcoin in holdings as early as this week.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs Trends and Inflows
These positive trends occurred in November, including the prospective reduction of interest rates by the Federal Reserve, the lifting of Russia’s ban on Bitcoin mining, and the US election.
As indicated by Apollo and SoSoValue, the US spot Bitcoin ETF issuers currently possess 976,893 Bitcoin, valued at over $66.2 billion. This represents nearly 5% of the $1.34 trillion market capitalization of Bitcoin.
To acquire the additional 23,107 Bitcoin and achieve the milestone, the ETFs would require $1.55 billion in net inflows (at current prices).
For it to transpire this week, an average of $301 million in daily net inflows is required.
According to Bitcoin analyst Alessandro Ottaviani, $3 billion has been invested in spot Bitcoin ETFs in the past two weeks.
“If this pace continues through November, ATH will be [inevitable].”
While the outcome of the Nov. 5 US presidential election could also serve as a tailwind for Bitcoin, Bitcoin has frequently experienced a surge several months following a halving event, the most recent of which occurred in April 2024.
In November 2020, Bitcoin experienced a nearly 43% increase in value due to the May 2020 halving event and President Joe Biden’s victory in 2020. CK Zheng, the chief investment officer of crypto hedge fund ZX Squared Capital, previously informed Cointelegraph that similar price movements could occur again, irrespective of the outcome.
Nevertheless, Henrik Andersson, Apollo Capital’s chief investment officer, stated that the “most significant factor” in determining whether the crypto market will experience a rally is a Donald Trump victory:
Andersson told Cointelegraph, “We think that the momentum in risk assets could propel BTC to $100,000 by the end of the year if he does win.” “If that were to transpire, Bitcoin would have established a new high-water mark and garnered significant global attention.”
Bitcoin has only experienced a more significant monthly gain in December 2020 and February 2024 since November 2020, the first complete month following the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Atlanta-based Emory University reported over $15.1 million of the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust in an Oct. 25 filing with the US securities regulator, and some of the recent gains can be attributed to academic institutions.
The Federal Open Market Committee of the United States Federal Reserve is scheduled to convene on November 6 and 7. CME Group’s Fedwatch tool predicts a 94.7% likelihood that interest rates will decrease by 25 basis points.
In the short term, rate decreases typically positively impact the markets and alleviate the financial pressures of everyday consumers.
In the meantime, lifting Russia’s Bitcoin mining prohibition on Nov. 1 has been perceived as a positive development for Bitcoin, as it enhances network decentralization and security.
Bitcoin is trading at $67,700, struggling to surpass $70,000, but with sufficient support at $65,000.
Crypto trader “Luca” posted to X on Oct. 26 that a “MASSIVE pile of longs” is located just under the $65,000 mark, a critical support level.
”Lose that, and the next support range at 60K gets exposed.”
