Cryptocurrency gamblers are wagering on the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving a spot Ether exchange-traded fund (ETF) before May 31.
According to the crypto gambling website Polymarket, traders have placed “Yes” or “No” wagers regarding approving a spot Ether ETF application by the end of May.
Bets have exceeded $2.4 million, with approximately 81% of participants harboring pessimism regarding the likelihood of a spot Ether ETF approval occurring before the conclusion of May.
Whether crypto traders purchase shares affirmatively or negatively depends on their future expectations. The value of the share reflects the wager’s prospects and fluctuates in tandem with the cryptocurrency market.
Currently, a share of Yes is valued at $0.19, and a share of No is worth $0.81. Consequently, bookmakers have diminished confidence regarding the likelihood of spot ETH ETF approvals occurring before the conclusion of May.
The leading trader for Yes holds approximately $84,000 shares, whereas the leading holder for No holds No shares valued around $127,000.
If the SEC approves a spot Ether ETF before 11:59 ET on May 31, 2024, the market will reach its resolution. Consequently, shareholders of Yes will have the opportunity to liquidate their profits. Nonetheless, the inverse is true without any approvals before the specified date.
Cryptocurrency speculators have previously placed bets on ETF approval outcomes. Reddit users criticized Polymarket speculators on January 5 for wagering whether the SEC would approve spot Bitcoin ETFs by January 15.
A Reddit user compared the wagering to wagering dollars to earn dimes, describing it as absurd. In the interim, an individual made light of the fact that they were on the verge of depleting their child’s college fund to place a wager.
The predictions market has witnessed wagers on ETF outcomes amounting to a minimum of $12 million, and on January 10, the SEC authorized listing and trading eleven spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Grayscale, an investment management firm, has conveyed assurance regarding the May authorizations of spot Ether ETFs. Craig Salm, chief legal officer of Grayscale, stated on March 25 that the SEC’s perceived “lack of engagement” with applicants is not indicative of ETF approval.
